Unsubscribe

Confirm you would like to unsubscribe from this list

Remove strategy

Confirm you would like to remove this strategy from your list

Welcome to Thornburg

Please select your location and role to help personalize the site.
Please review our Terms & Conditions

For Institutional / Wholesale / Professional Clients

The content on this website is intended for institutional and professional investors in the United States only and is not suitable for individual investors or non-U.S. entities. Institutional and professional investors include pension funds, investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, financial intermediaries, consultants, endowments and foundations, and investment advisors registered under the Investment Advisors Act of 1940.

TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF USE

Please read the information below. By accessing this web site of Thornburg Investment Management, Inc. ("Thornburg" or "we"), you acknowledge that you understand and accept the following terms and conditions of use.

Disclaimers

Products or services mentioned on this site are subject to legal and regulatory requirements in applicable jurisdictions and may not be licensed or available in all jurisdictions and there may be restrictions or limitations to whom this information may be made available. Unless otherwise indicated, no regulator or government authority has reviewed the information or the merits of the products and services referenced herein. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investments carry risks, including possible loss of principal.

Reference to a fund or security anywhere on this website is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any other security. The information is not a complete analysis of every material fact concerning any market, industry, or investment, nor is it intended to predict the performance of any investment or market.

All opinions and estimates included on this website constitute judgements of Thornburg as at the date of this website and are subject to change without notice.

All information and contents of this website are furnished "as is." Data has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but Thornburg makes no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of such information and has no obligation to provide updates or changes. Thornburg disclaims, to the fullest extent of the law, any implied or express warranty of any kind, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and non-infringement.

If you live in a state that does not allow disclaimers of implied warranties, our disclaimer may not apply to you.

Although Thornburg intends the information contained in this website to be accurate and reliable, errors sometimes occur. Thornburg does not warrant that the information to be free of errors, that the functions contained in the site will be uninterrupted, that defects will be corrected or that the site and servers are free from viruses or other harmful components. You agree that you are responsible for the means you use to access this website and understand that your hardware, software, the Internet, your Internet service provider, and other third parties involved in connecting you to our website may not perform as intended or desired. We also disclaim responsibility for damages third parties may cause to you through the use of this website, whether intentional or unintentional. For example, you understand that hackers could breach our security procedures, and that we will not be responsible for any related damages.

Thornburg Investment Management, Inc. is regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange under U.S. laws which may differ materially from laws in other jurisdictions.

Online Privacy and Cookie Policy

Please review our Online Privacy and Cookie Policy, which is hereby incorporated by reference as part of these terms and conditions.

Third Party Content

Certain website's content has been obtained from sources that Thornburg believes to be reliable as of the date presented but Thornburg cannot guarantee the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, or suitability for use of such content. The content does not take into account individual investor's circumstances, objectives or needs. The content is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument or any investment management services, nor does it constitute investment advice and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

Suitability

No determination has been made regarding the suitability of any securities, financial instruments or strategies for any investor. The website's content is provided on the basis and subject to the explanations, caveats and warnings set out in this notice and elsewhere herein. The website's content does not purport to provide any legal, tax or accounting advice. Any discussion of risk management is intended to describe Thornburg's efforts to monitor and manage risk but does not imply low risk.

Limited License and Restrictions on Use

Except as otherwise stated in these terms of use or as expressly authorized by Thornburg in writing, you may not:

  • Modify, copy, distribute, transmit, post, display, perform, reproduce, publish, broadcast, license, create derivative works from, transfer, sell, or exploit any reports, data, information, content, software, RSS and podcast feeds, products, services, or other materials (collectively, "Materials") on, generated by or obtained from this website, whether through links or otherwise;
  • Redeliver any page, text, image or Materials on this website using "framing" or other technology;
  • Engage in any conduct that could damage, disable, or overburden (i) this website, (ii) any Materials or services provided through this website, or (iii) any systems, networks, servers, or accounts related to this website, including without limitation, using devices or software that provide repeated automated access to this website, other than those made generally available by Thornburg;
  • Probe, scan, or test the vulnerability of any Materials, services, systems, networks, servers, or accounts related to this website or attempt to gain unauthorized access to Materials, services, systems, networks, servers, or accounts connected or associated with this website through hacking, password or data mining, or any other means of circumventing any access-limiting, user authentication or security device of any Materials, services, systems, networks, servers, or accounts related to this website; or
  • Modify, copy, obscure, remove or display the Thornburg name, logo, trademarks, notices or images without Thornburg's express written permission. To obtain such permission, you may e-mail us at info@thornburg.com.

Severability, Governing Law

Failure by Thornburg to enforce any provision(s) of these terms and conditions shall not be construed as a waiver of any provision or right. This website is controlled and operated by Thornburg from its offices in Santa Fe, New Mexico. The laws of the State of New Mexico govern these terms and conditions. If you take legal action relating to these terms and conditions, you agree to file such action only in state or federal court in New Mexico and you consent and submit to the personal jurisdiction of those courts for the purposes of litigating any such action.

Termination

You acknowledge and agree that Thornburg may restrict, suspend or terminate these terms and conditions or your access to, and use, of the all or any part this website, including any links to third-party sites, at any time, with or without cause, including but not limited to any breach of these terms and conditions, in Thornburg's absolute discretion and without prior notice or liability.

Decline

Give Us a Call

Fund Operations
800.847.0200

FIND ANOTHER CONTACT
Markets

Nancy Lazar Sees Rebound in Capex, Infrastructure and Consumer Spending

Thornburg Investment Management
31 Mar 2021
3 min read

We expect 9 percent U.S. GDP growth by the fourth quarter this year on a year-over-year basis. On average, the U.S. will grow stronger than China in 2021.

Nancy R. Lazar is head of economic research and founding partner at Cornerstone Macro, which provides economic research to institutional clients. She spoke with Thornburg Investment Management about the post-COVID economic and labor market recovery.

Thornburg:  What do you see happening with the U.S. economy as we re-open post COVID-19?

Nancy Lazar: Very strong growth. We expect 9 percent U.S. GDP growth by the fourth quarter this year on a year-over-year basis. On average, the U.S. will grow stronger than China in 2021, which is why we are overweight on the U.S. We think the dollar has stabilized, if not incrementally improved. We expect to see a recovery in earnings which we have never seen the likes of.

The Outlook from CSM

Source: Cornerstone Macro

Thornburg: What sectors in the U.S. do you like?

Nancy Lazar: We particularly like U.S. capital spending, old economy capex, the construction of factories, and stuff that goes into the factories. We like infrastructure. Private sector capex leads infrastructure, and the administration will probably be successful in working with Republicans to come up with an infrastructure bill. We like the consumer, because there’s so much pent-up demand and they’re flush with savings. We have consumer spending growing at 10 percent, which is the strongest since 1950.

Thornburg:  What could blow this apart?

Nancy Lazar:  First, we can’t get too complacent about COVID yet. We’ve seen the setbacks in Europe.

Second, the bond market could get out of control if growth is as strong as we think it will be. Our strong economic call is not consensus. If you end up with extremely robust growth, does that kind of spook the bond market?  The Fed isn’t going to budge.

Can the economy overheat sooner rather than later because growth is so strong?  I don’t think so, because there’s so much labor market slack, but if the labor market comes roaring back even stronger than we think and wage inflation picks up, it will be because the stimulus package was too big.

Does the Biden Administration become anti-business?  As of now, they’ve made steps in that direction, but they haven’t hammered it. Our policy teams suggest they won’t egregiously raise the corporate tax rate, and if they do raise it, it’s probably over several years.

Then there’s the geo-political backdrop — I do worry about tensions from the Middle East to China.

Thornburg:  Since you mentioned it, how did you feel about the most recent stimulus package?

Nancy Lazar: Too big. That’s why I worry about bond yields, because the economy was actually inherently healthy.

Thornburg:  What about the labor force?

Cornerstone:  Unemployment to Hit 2.8% in 4Q 2022*

*CSM forecasts the Participation Rate will climb from 61.4% recorded in Feb 2021 to 63.5% in Dec 2022.
Source: Cornerstone Macro

Nancy Lazar: It’s crushing what happened to the labor markets, not only a surge in official reports of unemployed, but also people dropping out of the labor force. That’s what the Fed is most passionate about right now, which is why they want to keep rates lower longer. It’s not just that low rates will heal the labor market, it’s that business investment will create the demand for labor and heal the labor markets, and low rates will further fuel business investment. I wish Washington would more clearly say that. These jobs just don’t come out of thin air.

Thornburg: How has the surge in technology use over the last year impacted the labor market?

Nancy Lazar:  To be sure, COVID brought forward increased usage of technology by companies. Because of that digitization, corporate profitability is higher, which actually gives companies the ability to hire more people than they otherwise would. There’s a fallacy that technology destroys jobs. It’s a creative destruction.

It’s innovation that creates new industries, new jobs, and propels an economy, as it has in the United States, as it did after the Industrial Revolution, as it did after World War II, as it did in the 1990s, as it’s doing today. Innovation demands workers continually improve themselves, which is a healthier economic backdrop than having huge entitlement programs. Overall, I’m bullish on technology, digitization, and increasing productivity helping to keep inflation lower longer, but there is a risk.

The interview was edited for length and clarity.

Discover more about:

Stay Connected

Subscribe now to stay up-to-date with Thornburg’s news and insights.
Subscribe

More Insights

Advising Clients

The Death of the 60/40 Portfolio? Think Again.

If investment print and internet article headlines give you anxiety, you've come to the right place. In this podcast, Jan shares ideas that may prevent your blood pressure from spiking the next time you read an alarming headline. Plus, the debut of the Ask Jan segment.
Global Equity

Navigating the Post-COVID Resurgence in Travel and Hospitality

As the storm that crushed the travel and lodging industries clears, we see post-Covid investment opportunities and pitfalls in the skies ahead.
Markets & Economy

Is the Fed Gambling with Markets & the Economy?

Jason Brady believes “We're not going to see anything near the Fed's 2% target inflation… forcing the Fed to continue to be very hawkish."

Our insights. Your inbox.

Sign up to receive timely market commentary and perspectives from our financial experts delivered to your inbox weekly.
This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
Feedback