Global Perspectives

Turns out price matters for excess returns, and that what’s worked before doesn’t necessarily persist into the future. “Many factors aren’t real.”

Caveat emptor: current technical supply and demand flows favor issuers more than buyers. But diligent, disciplined investors can always find attractively priced, fundamentally sound bonds.

While investors should be cognizant of the complexities and risks around Brexit, they should be just as aware of the opportunities in select U.K.-based businesses.

It appears the “Powell Put” has been exercised as the Fed chief declares no “pre-set” course on rates and no “hesitation” to change its balance sheet runoff. But does the economy still need Fed accommodation, or do markets just want it?

The U.S. Federal Reserve has roiled markets with its latest rate hike and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell, who disappointed many investors as insufficiently dovish in his December 19 remarks.

The trade conflict and Fed rate policy are buffeting markets at a time China was already grappling with debt challenges at home. But the volatility may be masking good economic fundamentals globally, reform efforts in China, and attractive investment opportunities.

Conventional market wisdom two years ago didn’t look right for long, as gains in industries seen as politically favored faded while one sector expected to suffer quickly rebounded.

Preparations ahead of a hurricane and rebuilding after it temporarily boost tax receipts in affected areas. But longer-term effects on muni markets are usually negligible.

Even before the market selloff, downtrodden value stocks were perking up as pricey growth stocks stumbled. But durable index-level shifts are harder to call than individual stock price disconnects from business fundamentals.

High-yield returns have been great lately, as technical flows, fundamental factors and good economic growth align. But tight spreads, lofty net leverage and event risk don’t make for smooth sailing ahead.

Investors interested in long/short equity mutual funds would be well advised to consider more than their much-more competitive fees vs. private hedge fund peers. To genuinely hedge the long components of a portfolio, look for lower net long exposures in a long/short equity allocation, and added value on the short side even in rising equity markets.

If the efficient markets hypothesis is questionable at the stock level, it’s more so at the index level. As the number of indices skyrockets, the number of companies declines, and passive flows grow, active price discovery becomes more and more valuable.

The volatility of short-term rates, however, means the variable rate structure isn't a silver bullet.

Team performance matters more than star players or a large resource base. And in a rapidly changing world, Totaalvoetbal can help teams adapt.

Risk to the euro resurfaces in an unlikely governing coalition and challenging economic agenda, but Italy’s top stocks don’t face the same perils as its government bonds.

High-quality bonds and defensive stocks are on the ropes. And U.S. blue-chips look poised to roll over, if history is any guide. But what if it isn’t?

Bond supply is plummeting, but so is demand. And rates are rising. Where are the silver linings?

Stocks slide on rising rates and yield curve inversion concerns, but a recession doesn't look likely, judging by other economic data and the high-yield bond market.

Facebook’s margins could ebb this year, but they remain at elevated levels and profits could still grow meaningfully.

Tech and financials led the recent selloff, as headline noise and regulatory risks spooked investors. But strong corporate fundamentals, including earnings growth, should ultimately drive stock returns.

While U.S. tech giants are effective monopolies, they are so in an unconventional way, making taxing them easier than breaking them up.

Not necessarily the Fed, whose own research suggests wage growth is not a reliable indicator of future inflation. But markets, it appears, aren’t sure what to think.

Investors worried about wage and inflation data should appreciate the underlying strength of the economy, not to mention strong corporate earnings. The market volatility is creating better entry points for longer-term investors.

At the beginning of every year, a number of investment professionals at Thornburg voluntarily place their informal, internal-only bets on which three securities—from stocks to currencies or other financial assets—might together produce the best beta-adjusted returns in the year ahead. In 2017, the winner was Sean Sun, whose three picks included bitcoin. The cryptocurrency skyrocketed last year, of course, helping Sean win the prizeless competition by a wide margin.

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) recently voted to rescind the 2015 “net-neutrality” regime that had effectively re-classified lightly regulated internet service providers (ISPs) as...

As third-quarter earnings season gets underway in earnest this week, equity market participants are expecting company fundamentals and reported results to be larger drivers of performance for large...

The U.S. Federal Reserve has announced the October start of the slow reversal in the unprecedented expansion of its balance sheet following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Chairwoman Janet Yellen...

The Iditarod is considered one of the world's most grueling and dangerous races. Sled dogs travel 1,100 miles through increasingly treacherous arctic terrain. The dogs and mushers traditionally run the entire day and then rest at night...

Can long/short alternative equity strategies work as a “bridge” between equity and fixed income? It’s an interesting question recently posed to us by a wealth advisory team. Both asset classes become...

Most U.S. risk asset prices have enjoyed a long ride higher amid slow-but-steady economic growth, scant inflation and still ample central bank monetary support. But if fund flows are any indication of...

A common misperception is that American depositary receipts, which bundle ordinary shares of an overseas-listed company into a U.S.-traded security, don’t carry currency risk. Driving the confusion is...

When the curators at Merriam-Webster convene to select their Word of the Year for 2017, they might consider “Amazonization” for their short list. Since the June 15th announcement of Amazon’s...

How smart are “smart beta” products? As factor-based investing is the latest fashion in the allocation trend to passive exchange traded funds, the performance of the most popular among smart beta...

In the early 1960s, a meteorologist undertook a mission to predict the weather. Unique to his approach at the time was his extensive use of computers to assist in the predictions. He began running...

Bank loan funds have been widely touted as a great way to help fixed income investors ride out a rising interest rate cycle. Also known as levered loan or senior loan funds, they are, after all, high...

After years of excellent equity returns at home, U.S. investors appear increasingly interested in moving their chips into less crowded trades abroad, where economic growth is on the upswing, earnings cycle...

Despite weaker economic data of late, the U.S. Federal Reserve matched market expectations in raising its benchmark interest rate June 14, 2017 a quarter point, setting its new range to a still highly...

"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." This insight comes from economist Charles Goodhart, whose precept refers to the tendency of individuals or organizations...

In this Q&A, Thornburg’s Connor Browne doubts the Senate will pass the House’s American Health Care Act (AHCA) in its current form, and is cautious...

It's the Rorschach economy. After much weaker-than-expected U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, it seems economists' views range from....

European asset prices have surged since independent Emmanuel Macron emerged as the decisive winner in the first round of the French presidential election...

Morningstar’s director of exchange-traded fund research penned an interesting article April 12 on the total cost of ETF ownership, which we also wrote about in a recent article examining the latest...

The U.S. Federal Reserve has released the minutes from its March monetary policy meeting, suggesting that the unwinding of trillions of dollars in debt on its balance sheet could start later this...

Recently, much has been made about the divergence between hard and soft data on economic fundamentals in the U.S. On March 28, the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence...

In an upwardly rising interest rate environment patience is an extremely important character trait for investors. They need to examine their investment horizons, make sure they are appropriate for their...

The U.S. Federal Reserve shifted gears at its March 15, 2017, monetary policy meeting, lifting its key Federal funds rate a quarter-point to a 0.75-1.00% range. Although the increase was widely flagged...

In the wake of Donald Trump’s November electoral victory, investors focused on his pro-growth agenda of tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending, not on his protectionist and...

Markets this year have gotten off on the right foot. Over the first three weeks of 2017, the S&P 500 Index added 1.3% to its 12% gain in calendar 2016, while the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate...

Many investors might see bank loans as “fixed income” without duration risk, given their floating-rate structure. They may use them as a way to reduce their exposure to rising risk-free rates without...

Recent municipal bond market movements mark a transition from a period of significant overvaluation to fair or even under-valuation. This can be a painful process for muni market...

The December U.S. jobs report wasn’t particularly surprising, though a couple of nuances are worth considering for fixed income investors. While the economy added 156,000 jobs, which was a bit...