Global Perspectives - Thornburg Investment Management

As Inflows Grow and Skepticism Lingers, ESG Investing Comes of Age

Companies increasingly adopt ESG principles as investment managers integrate sustainability metrics into their investment process. But it's still "something of a wild west."

August 28, 2020

Charles Roth

Monetary Policy Setting Stage for Stock Market Growth-to-Value Rotation?

Federal Reserve and other major central bank stimulus should benefit high-quality value stocks and foster inflation's "green shoots" as the global economy emerges from recession.

August 27, 2020

Charles Roth

A Macroeconomic Snapshot from an Active Management Shop

Thornburg's investment team keeps an eye on the macro but focuses squarely on the fundamentals and portfolio fit of each stock and bond selected. This July 17 macro overview is a sample of an internal weekly note to our distribution team that features big-picture highlights from the week that was.

July 24, 2020

Charles Roth

The Fed’s “Not Thinking” Singular Focus

Supporting the beaten-down labor market is the Federal Reserve's "major focus," not inflation nor risk asset prices. Doing "whatever we can and for as long as it takes."

June 11, 2020

Charles Roth

Digitization Drives Transformation of Key Sectors in Indian Economy

Digitization in banking and retail comes in the wake of a massive cellular network rollout, creating attractive investment opportunities in India.

May 22, 2020

Charles Roth

The Salutary Effects of Coronavirus-Stricken Energy Prices

While energy investment retrenches in the wake of COVID-19's historic impact on oil and gas markets, consumers will benefit as economies reopen. Selective and patient investors should too.

May 5, 2020

Charles Roth

How COVID-19’s Deflation Shock May Spawn Inflation Outbreak

Coronavirus has sent economies swooning, toppling consumer price indices. Rebounds in stock and bond markets on policy stimulus don't mean market volatility is over, or that inflation is dead.

April 20, 2020

Charles Roth

Actively Managed Equities Funds Proved Resilient to COVID-19 Volatility

A review of academic research on actively managed funds backs data on active manager outperformance during February's coronavirus-fueled markets fallout.

March 12, 2020

Charles Roth

coronavirus
covid-19

On Coronavirus and Volatility in Equities and Bond Markets

COVID-19 and the socio-political responses to it present an opportunity for both market timers, those who try and trade around the shifts in market direction, and long-term investors.

March 3, 2020

Charles Roth

Don’t Fight the Fed, as the Fed Fights Coronavirus

The Fed chopped its key rate after equities and bond markets tanked last week. The move risks fueling already frothy risk asset prices amid weakening global growth due to COVID-19, which has badly disrupted global supply chains and increasingly damped some services industries.

March 3, 2020

Charles Roth

Market Selloff Goes Viral, Injecting More Value into Prices

Coronavirus-induced market volatility is another in a long string of blows to the global economic recovery. But investors should look through the disruptions for free-cash-flow companies with healthy balance sheets and resilient, if not robust earnings.

February 25, 2020

Charles Roth

Prognosticating China's Coronavirus-struck Markets

If the novel coronavirus' spread hurts some industries, others are positioned to benefit from the fallout. Examining the short- and long-term implications of the virus' effect on global supply chains.

February 10, 2020

Charles Roth

Yet Another Year of Bullish Emerging Markets Calls? Why This Time Is Indeed Different

Exogenous factors often knock well-positioned markets temporarily off track, sometimes repeatedly. But dislocated share prices ultimately re-align with business fundamentals, earnings growth and attractive valuations.

January 29, 2020

Charles Roth

Top Ten Reasons Emerging Markets Poised to Rally in 2020

After false starts in the last few years, we believe emerging markets are set to deliver strong performance in the year to come thanks to accelerating and broad-based drivers.

January 15, 2020

Despite “Phase One,” U.S.-China Trade Dispute Likely to Linger

As “strategic competitors,” bilateral friction won’t go away anytime soon, but extensive economic integration and shared interests should facilitate longer-term accords and investment.

January 14, 2020

Charles Roth

The Bright Side of China’s Equities amid Trade War, Hong Kong Protests and Slowing Growth

China's GDP is changing, and creating new investment opportunities. Thornburg PM Lei Wang discusses the outlook for Chinese stocks, the market implications of the political turmoil in Hong Kong and prospects for European equities.

November 27, 2019

Rising LNG Tide Changes How It’s Priced and Traded

Supply and demand growth in liquefied gas benefits some producers more than others. For investors in U.S. upstream gas producers and Gulf Coast LNG infrastructure, caveat emptor.

November 5, 2019

Charles Roth

Powell Tempers the Fed’s “Hawkish Cut”

While the Fed met expectations in its latest interest rate reduction, it signaled that hikes are a long way off.

October 31, 2019

Lon Erickson, CFA

Repo Market Rate Spikes, Bank Regulation and the QE Misnomer

Recent stress in repo markets reflect the confluence of a shrunken Fed balance sheet amid steady economic growth and increasing capital and liquidity regulations on banks.

October 8, 2019

Charles Roth

Drilling into Oil Market Investing after the Attack on Saudi Arabia

Longer-term investors should focus on an energy company's structural advantages in terms of asset base quality, operational efficiency and financial discipline, not the price of oil and gas.

September 16, 2019

Charles Roth

What's Driving the Market Rotation from Growth to Value?

A rising Treasury yield amid better economic data, easing macro risk and a few more monetary injections may be spurring the rotation. Corroborating, so far, a "mid-cycle adjustment"?

September 12, 2019

Charles Roth

Brazil's Flight of the Chicken

The market has bid up Brazilian assets in anticipation of economic reforms, but the optimism should be well measured and individual securities well picked.

August 30, 2019

Josh Rubin

Portfolio Allocation Amid the Tidal Effects of Renewed Fed Easing

The Fed is poised to join the global easing bandwagon, fueling a surge in risk asset prices. As market distortions from easy money grow, so does the importance of security selection and portfolio allocation.

July 23, 2019

Charles Roth

The Perils of Inflexible, Formulaic Investing

As downward pressure on negative bond yields builds, a flexible approach helps in the search for attractive, relative values.

June 24, 2019

Charles Roth

Dollar Headwind to Emerging Markets Equities Lifting, Though Trade Dispute Still Drags

After a turbulent May, China and emerging markets appear poised to resume their ascent from the first quarter, even as trade-related air pockets remain likely.

June 11, 2019

The Fed’s Dueling Mandates

The Fed is tasked with keeping prices stable, unemployment low and long-term interest rates moderate. The monetary alchemy with such unstable elements is coming under review.

June 4, 2019

Charles Roth

Smaller Muni SMAs Leave a Bad Taste in SALT-Seasoned Market

Big-ticket, ultra-short notes force muni SMAs with low minimums to buy longer-term paper at rich prices, likely giving clients more heartburn than total return.

May 8, 2019

Charles Roth

Emerging Market Stocks Still Have Room to Run

Despite sprinting higher so far this year, developing country equities appear well positioned to sustain their momentum, and with less volatility.

April 17, 2019

Charles Roth

The Fed’s "Financial Conditions" Conundrum

Spectacular first-quarter market returns are quite a bounce back from the December 26 lows, when all anyone could think of was fleeing risk exposures. Many markets saw their best quarter...

April 3, 2019

Jason Brady, CFA

Rerating the Judgment Factor Amid Smart Beta's Derating

Turns out price matters for excess returns, and that what's worked before doesn't necessarily persist into the future. "Many factors aren't real."

March 15, 2019

Charles Roth

Muni Bond Sales Surge as Issuers Ride Demand Wave

Caveat emptor: current technical supply and demand flows favor issuers more than buyers. But diligent, disciplined investors can always find attractively priced, fundamentally sound bonds.

February 19, 2019

Understanding the Brexit Quandary

While investors should be cognizant of the complexities and risks around Brexit, they should be just as aware of the opportunities in select U.K.-based businesses.

January 29, 2019

Charles Roth

After Falling Back to Earth, Emerging Markets Ready to Take off Again

Will emerging markets stocks rebound in 2019? Attractive valuations, strong forecast earnings growth, structural reforms, and an abating dollar headwind suggest they will.

January 15, 2019

Charles Wilson, PhD

Suffering Liquidity Withdrawal Syndrome, Market Gets Its Fix

It appears the "Powell Put" has been exercised as the Fed chief declares no "pre-set" course on rates and no "hesitation" to change its balance sheet runoff. But does the economy still need Fed accommodation, or do markets just want it?

January 8, 2019

Charles Roth

Not Dovish Enough? Thornburg’s Brady on the Fed and Markets

The U.S. Federal Reserve has roiled markets with its latest rate hike and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell, who disappointed many investors as insufficiently dovish in his December 19 remarks.

December 20, 2018

The Presidential Put, the Powell Put, and China’s New Playbook

The trade conflict and Fed rate policy are buffeting markets at a time China was already grappling with debt challenges at home. But the volatility may be masking good economic fundamentals globally, reform efforts in China, and attractive investment opportunities.

December 7, 2018

Charles Roth

Investing on U.S. Election Results? Caveat Emptor

Conventional market wisdom two years ago didn't look right for long, as gains in industries seen as politically favored faded while one sector expected to suffer quickly rebounded.

November 16, 2018

Charles Roth

From China to Mexico to Brazil, Headline Noise Obscures Underlying Emerging Market Drivers

Positive catalysts are in place in all three countries, and across emerging markets valuations and earnings expectations make for a potential rebound in 2019.

October 31, 2018

Charles Roth

Hurricanes, the Muni Market, and the Duct Tape Effect

Preparations ahead of a hurricane and rebuilding after it temporarily boost tax receipts in affected areas. But longer-term effects on muni markets are usually negligible.

October 23, 2018

Dominic Alto

Market Rout May Spur Rotation from Growth to Value

Even before the market selloff, downtrodden value stocks were perking up as pricey growth stocks stumbled. But durable index-level shifts are harder to call than individual stock price disconnects from business fundamentals.

October 11, 2018

Charles Roth

Who’s Afraid of an Emerging Markets Meltdown?

Deep declines are usually followed by rebounds that leave emerging market stocks with gains by year end, as the structural tailwinds are driven by steadily expanding middle classes. Meaningful, consistent exposures to the asset class are key to capitalizing on the long-run double-digit returns.

September 24, 2018

Beware High Yield’s Siren Song

High-yield returns have been great lately, as technical flows, fundamental factors and good economic growth align. But tight spreads, lofty net leverage and event risk don't make for smooth sailing ahead.

September 17, 2018

Charles Roth

Parsing Long/Short Equity Liquid Alts Performance, Fees and Net Exposures

Investors interested in long/short equity mutual funds would be well advised to consider more than their much-more competitive fees vs. private hedge fund peers. To genuinely hedge the long components of a portfolio, look for lower net long exposures in a long/short equity allocation, and added value on the short side even in rising equity markets.

August 30, 2018

Charles Roth

The Efficiency Factor in Stock vs. Index Picking

If the efficient markets hypothesis is questionable at the stock level, it's more so at the index level. As the number of indices skyrockets, the number of companies declines, and passive flows grow, active price discovery becomes more and more valuable.

August 28, 2018

Charles Roth

Report from Turkey: Cheap Asset Prices May Not Be Cheap Enough

Turkish asset prices have plummeted this year, bringing their valuations to historically low levels. That presents potentially attractive opportunities to investors looking for quality stocks at bargain-basement prices.

July 25, 2018

Charles Wilson, PhD

VRDOs Give Muni Investors Ammo to Protect Against Rising Rates

The volatility of short-term rates, however, means the variable rate structure isn't a silver bullet.

July 18, 2018

Oil Price Shifts Into Overdrive

Supply and demand dynamics, along with political fuel injection, may keep crude prices running hot.

July 3, 2018

Charles Roth

Emerging Markets Rise, Fall, Repeat

Emerging market stocks are trading near bear market territory, but that's par for the course for longer-run, rising returns.

July 2, 2018

Charles Roth

The Beautiful Game: Surprising Insights from the World Cup about Strategy and Teamwork

Team performance matters more than star players or a large resource base. And in a rapidly changing world, Totaalvoetbal can help teams adapt.

June 18, 2018

Christian Hoffmann, CFA

Hedging Foreign Currency Exposure vs. Accepting Unmitigated Foreign Currency Risk

Many forces undercut and bolster the greenback. Rather than accepting unknown risk around its near- or long-term direction, dollar-based equity investors may be better served using currency hedges so they can focus more on the individual merits of overseas securities.

June 11, 2018

Josh Rubin

Italy’s Politics Drives a Wedge Between Its Stocks and Sovereign Bonds

Risk to the euro resurfaces in an unlikely governing coalition and challenging economic agenda, but Italy's top stocks don't face the same perils as its government bonds.

June 8, 2018

Charles Roth

Portfolio Allocation When Safe Havens Get Stormy

High-quality bonds and defensive stocks are on the ropes. And U.S. blue-chips look poised to roll over, if history is any guide. But what if it isn't?

May 24, 2018

Charles Roth

A More Demanding Powell Put to Test EM’s Strengthened Mettle

The Fed chairman makes clear the bar for slowing monetary tightening is higher nowadays, and argues emerging markets are much better positioned to handle higher U.S. yields than they were before.

May 10, 2018

Charles Roth

The Upside of Munis’ Down Market

Bond supply is plummeting, but so is demand. And rates are rising. Where are the silver linings?

May 3, 2018

Dominic Alto

10-Year Treasury Yield Upshifts past 3% as Fear of Curve Inversion Grows

Stocks slide on rising rates and yield curve inversion concerns, but a recession doesn't look likely, judging by other economic data and the high-yield bond market.

April 25, 2018

Charles Roth

The Weak U.S. Dollar Puffs Up Overseas Equity Returns

Yet the earnings potential of developed and emerging markets stocks is real, since they are at earlier points in their respective business cycles.

April 18, 2018

Josh Rubin

After #ZuckerbergHearing, Investors Don’t Unfriend Facebook

Facebook's margins could ebb this year, but they remain at elevated levels and profits could still grow meaningfully.

April 13, 2018

Charles Roth

Regulators Seeking to Tax or Break Up U.S. Tech Giants Face Tough Task

While U.S. tech giants are effective monopolies, they are so in an unconventional way, making taxing them easier than breaking them up.

March 21, 2018

Charles Roth

Understanding The Confucian in Xi's Populism

China has dropped norms to allow President Xi Jinping to remain in power after his second term ends. While worrisome at first blush, the populist turn and consolidation of power likely has near-term economic and financial market benefits, and longer-term political risks.

March 15, 2018

Charles Roth

Who’s Afraid of Higher Wages Driving Inflation?

Not necessarily the Fed, whose own research suggests wage growth is not a reliable indicator of future inflation. But markets, it appears, aren't sure what to think.

March 5, 2018

Thornburg Investment Management

Emerging Market ETFs Traded Reliably During Selloff. But What about their NAV Disconnects?

EM ETFs suffered deviations in their market prices relative to their net asset values, with their total returns materially underperforming the broad emerging market index.

February 28, 2018

Charles Roth

U.S. Stocks Fall into Correction Territory, But Investors Should Keep Their Chins Up

Investors worried about wage and inflation data should appreciate the underlying strength of the economy, not to mention strong corporate earnings. The market volatility is creating better entry points for longer-term investors.

February 9, 2018

Charles Roth

Why Samsung Can Be an Apple of Investors’ Eyes

Samsung is no longer a stodgy conglomerate (or chaebol in Korea) that just makes consumer and industrial electronic devices and equipment, along with some home appliances. Its sales of semiconductor chips and panels account for nearly half of total revenues.

January 18, 2018

Josh Rubin

Guess What Delivered in Spades in Thornburg’s Internal 2017 Global 3 Stock/Security Competition?

At the beginning of every year, a number of investment professionals at Thornburg voluntarily place their informal, internal-only bets on which three securities—from stocks to currencies or other financial assets—might together produce the best beta-adjusted returns in the year ahead. In 2017, the winner was Sean Sun, whose three picks included bitcoin. The cryptocurrency skyrocketed last year, of course, helping Sean win the prizeless competition by a wide margin.

January 12, 2018

Sean Koung Sun, CFA

Mexico’s Central Bank Hikes Key Rate In Hawkish Turn

The Central Bank of Mexico has raised the policy rate a quarter point to 7.25%, its highest level in nearly nine years. Banxico, as the Mexican monetary authority is known, had been widely expected to...

December 18, 2017

Emerging Market Performance Dispersion Set to Rise After Strong 2017

Emerging market assets have mostly had a gangbuster 2017 across the board, from stocks to bonds and currencies. But some macroeconomic headwinds and "idiosyncratic" or country-specific risks...

November 30, 2017

A Megatrend is Underway

Four-hundred million Chinese millennials will soon account for more than half of China's domestic consumption. As a group, they are larger than the working populations of the U.S. and Western Europe...

November 16, 2017

India Takes a Page Out of the TARP Playbook

In an unexpected move, the government of India has announced a $32 billion plan to recapitalize the country's sour-loan laden public sector banks, its biggest step so far in addressing a lingering problem...

October 26, 2017

China's Central Bank Chief Warns of "Minsky Moment"

Investors have looked beyond divisive, populist politics in the U.S., the U.K., Spain, and elsewhere in Europe, focusing instead on accelerating global economic growth and surging industrial metals prices...

October 20, 2017

Charles Roth

Falling Correlations Put Stock-Specific Attributes in Driver’s Seat

As third-quarter earnings season gets underway in earnest this week, equity market participants are expecting company fundamentals and reported results to be larger drivers of performance for large...

October 16, 2017

As India Crosses the Digital Divide, a New Era of Investment Opportunities Dawns

When can a country's bluechip stocks be a bargain if they're trading at historically high forward earnings valuations after posting world-beating returns over the last two decades? Right now, if they're Indian ...

October 5, 2017

Charles Roth

As Fed’s QE Dismantling Begins, Questions Around Growth, Asset Prices Linger

The U.S. Federal Reserve has announced the October start of the slow reversal in the unprecedented expansion of its balance sheet following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Chairwoman Janet Yellen...

September 27, 2017

Charles Roth

Tough Sledding in Multisector Bond Investing? It Depends on the Team.

The Iditarod is considered one of the world's most grueling and dangerous races. Sled dogs travel 1,100 miles through increasingly treacherous arctic terrain. The dogs and mushers traditionally run the entire day and then rest at night...

September 19, 2017

Thornburg Investment Management

Investing In EV Carmakers and Supply Chains? Utility Work Ahead

Future growth projections for electric vehicles vary dramatically, but all reflect real opportunities for fundamentals-focused investors surveying the links in supply and production chains.

September 15, 2017

Charles Roth

A Long/Short Bridge Between Stocks and Bonds

Can long/short alternative equity strategies work as a "bridge" between equity and fixed income? It's an interesting question recently posed to us by a wealth advisory team. Both asset classes become...

September 9, 2017

As Perceived Risks Rise, Limited-Term U.S. Government Funds Offer Shelter

Most U.S. risk asset prices have enjoyed a long ride higher amid slow-but-steady economic growth, scant inflation and still ample central bank monetary support. But if fund flows are any indication of...

August 29, 2017

Charles Roth

Yes, ADRs Do Carry Foreign Currency Risks

A common misperception is that American depositary receipts, which bundle ordinary shares of an overseas-listed company into a U.S.-traded security, don't carry currency risk. Driving the confusion is...

August 25, 2017

Todd Wax, CFA

North Korea, U.S. Rhetoric Rattle Markets, But Investors Should Ignore the Noise

Geopolitics is shaking global markets, with the epicenter of the latest tremors coming from the Korean Peninsula. Fiery rhetoric out of Pyongyang is nothing new. But it is certainly novel coming from the...

August 15, 2017

Charles Roth

“Death by Amazon” a Real, Though Not Indiscriminate Threat

When the curators at Merriam-Webster convene to select their Word of the Year for 2017, they might consider "Amazonization" for their short list. Since the June 15th announcement of Amazon's...

August 9, 2017

Are Low Vol ETFs as Smart as They Sound?

"Smart Beta" ETFs and their low-volatility ETF progeny may deliver a lower beta against their relevant benchmarks, but they're not immune to bouts of volatility, and their returns frequently come up short.

July 27, 2017

Josh Rubin

Low Vol ETFS
Smart Beta

On Chaos, Butterflies, and Robustness

In the early 1960s, a meteorologist undertook a mission to predict the weather. Unique to his approach at the time was his extensive use of computers to assist in the predictions. He began running...

July 24, 2017

Thornburg Investment Management

Breaking Down the Presumed Correlation Between Commodities and Emerging Markets

Among the lingering misconceptions about emerging markets is that they are proxy plays on commodities, prices of which presumably drive returns in developing country stocks. Historical...

July 20, 2017

Charles Roth

Bank Loans Beat High Yield Amid Rising Rates? Don’t Bank on It

Bank loan funds have been widely touted as a great way to help fixed income investors ride out a rising interest rate cycle. Also known as levered loan or senior loan funds, they are, after all, high...

June 29, 2017

Christian Hoffmann, CFA

The Incentive Factor Behind MSCI’s China A Shares Index Inclusion

If China is a master of incremental reforms to gain admission to select economic and financial circles, only to bend the rules after access is granted, MSCI appears well aware of its playbook. Whether...

June 22, 2017

Charles Roth

More Overseas Outperformance May Be In Store

After years of excellent equity returns at home, U.S. investors appear increasingly interested in moving their chips into less crowded trades abroad, where economic growth is on the upswing, earnings cycle...

June 19, 2017

Charles Roth

Yellen at the Markets: Don’t Worry. Low Unemployment to Trump Transitory Low Inflation

Despite weaker economic data of late, the U.S. Federal Reserve matched market expectations in raising its benchmark interest rate June 14, 2017 a quarter point, setting its new range to a still highly...

June 15, 2017

Charles Roth

China's Steel Industry Shrinks to Grow More Efficient

China's Baosteel Group is now the second-largest steel company in the world after ArcelorMittal, but it is the undisputed leader in the Middle Kingdom, where roughly half the world's steel is produced. I...

May 26, 2017

Charles Wilson, PhD

China
Steel manufacturing

Goodhart’s Law, Greenwashing and ESG

"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." This insight comes from economist Charles Goodhart, whose precept refers to the tendency of individuals or organizations...

May 19, 2017

Thornburg Investment Management

Brazilian Markets Tumble as Political Turmoil Returns

Brazilian asset prices tanked May 18 following a local media report implicating President Michel Temer in alleged hush-money payments to former lower house Speaker Eduardo Cunha, who is now...

May 18, 2017

Mexican Market’s Reprieve from Political Ferment to Be Short-lived

The political squalls blowing from north of Mexico's border took a heavy toll on the Aztec nation's asset prices at the beginning of the year, but as we noted a few days after Donald Trump, whose...

May 11, 2017

South Korea Tacks Left With New President, But Stocks Have Other Drivers

After nearly a decade of conservative administrations, South Koreans have elected a leftist human rights lawyer as president. Moon Jae-in's pledges to take a conciliatory tact with Kim Jong-un's volatile regime...

May 10, 2017

Charles Roth

Underinvestment and Demand Growth Will Help Sliding Oil Prices Recover Footing

After falling more than 6% in a week, oil prices pared their losses Friday, May 5, rebounding 1.6% as the "tug of war" between Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and U.S. shale...

May 5, 2017

Charles Wilson, PhD

The Mirror Image of the Weak Q1 GDP Reading

It's the Rorschach economy. After much weaker-than-expected U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, it seems economists' views range from....

May 1, 2017

Charles Roth

Trump Trade? The More Likely Reflation Trade is in Europe

European asset prices have surged since independent Emmanuel Macron emerged as the decisive winner in the first round of the French presidential election...

April 28, 2017

Charles Roth

europe
french election

Tailwinds to Emerging Markets Resurgence?

In contrast to last year's volatility in the first quarter, global equity markets showed strong returns during the first three months of 2017. Economic indicators and earnings around the world are beating...

April 13, 2017

Charles Roth

ETFs’ Total Costs Underappreciated

Morningstar's director of exchange-traded fund research penned an interesting article April 12 on the total cost of ETF ownership, which we also wrote about in a recent article examining the latest...

April 12, 2017

Charles Roth

Managing Risk Exposures Amid Fed Balance Sheet Normalization

The U.S. Federal Reserve has released the minutes from its March monetary policy meeting, suggesting that the unwinding of trillions of dollars in debt on its balance sheet could start later this...

April 7, 2017

Thornburg Investment Management

China’s Li Keqiang Index Flexing its Muscle

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang once told a U.S. diplomat that China's official GDP data was "man made," according to Bloomberg. To glean more accurate measures of growth, he instead looked at...

April 7, 2017

Todd Wax, CFA

Investors Should Look Beyond South Africa's Unfolding Political Drama Now

South Africa's political tensions intensified on March 30 following President Jacob Zuma's sweeping cabinet reshuffle, which included replacements of respected finance minister Pravin Gordhan and his deputy ...

March 31, 2017

Charles Roth

ECONOMY
south africa politics

U.S.’s So-so Hard Economic Data May Weigh on Buoyant Consumer Sentiment

Recently, much has been made about the divergence between hard and soft data on economic fundamentals in the U.S. On March 28, the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence...

March 30, 2017

The Fed’s Regime Change

The U.S. Federal Reserve shifted gears at its March 15, 2017, monetary policy meeting, lifting its key Federal funds rate a quarter-point to a 0.75-1.00% range. Although the increase was widely flagged...

March 16, 2017

Charles Roth

Market Shrugs off Fed Rate Hike Warning

After leaving its benchmark interest rate near zero for eight years and then lifting it just once in each of the last two, the market has grown accustomed to discounting U.S. Federal Reserve indications...

February 24, 2017

Charles Roth

Energy Goldilocks? Growing Oil Demand, High OPEC Compliance Meet High Inventories and Growing Non-OPEC Output

The International Energy Agency (IEA) Friday reported the best compliance on an oil output cut agreement in the history of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). While this is...

February 13, 2017

Charles Roth

India's Pragmatic Populism

For a country steeped in its customs, India's government and central bank have taken a liking to the element of surprise. The policy announcements have been far from pleasant, causing people...

February 10, 2017

Charles Roth

Trump Trade to Trump Fade

In the wake of Donald Trump's November electoral victory, investors focused on his pro-growth agenda of tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending, not on his protectionist and...

February 3, 2017

Charles Roth

What’s Worked Lately in EM isn’t What’s Worked Long Term

Over the last 10- and 15-year periods, the MSCI emerging market consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and health care sectors have massively outperformed energy and materials. This...

January 31, 2017

Charles Wilson, PhD

Ride the Dollar Tide at Your Risk

After three straight years of declines, developing country stocks regained some ground in 2016. Yet the MSCI Emerging Market Index's 11.2% total return in 2016 came with marked volatility along...

January 25, 2017

Charles Wilson, PhD

What’s Past isn’t Prologue So Far in 2017

Markets this year have gotten off on the right foot. Over the first three weeks of 2017, the S&P 500 Index added 1.3% to its 12% gain in calendar 2016, while the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate...

January 24, 2017

Charles Roth

Can Bank Loan Funds Float to a Narrow Outcome?

Many investors might see bank loans as "fixed income" without duration risk, given their floating-rate structure. They may use them as a way to reduce their exposure to rising risk-free rates without...

January 18, 2017

Jeff Klingelhofer, CFA

The Flip Side of the Muni Market Selloff

Recent municipal bond market movements mark a transition from a period of significant overvaluation to fair or even under-valuation. This can be a painful process for muni market...

January 17, 2017

Johnathan Burnham, CFA

December Jobs Data and Defensive Fixed Income Positioning amid Lurking Inflation Risks

The December U.S. jobs report wasn't particularly surprising, though a couple of nuances are worth considering for fixed income investors. While the economy added 156,000 jobs, which was a bit...

January 13, 2017

Thornburg Investment Management